The AMF publishes its 2025 Markets and Risk Outlook
Against a global backdrop marked by persistent trade tensions whose development could impact on growth prospects, the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) highlights the good resilience of the markets. However, it notes increased volatility across all asset classes, which could persist in the coming months.
In its annual exercise to map markets and risks, the AMF observed an increase in market risks, while emphasising the resilience of financial markets. Since the beginning of 2025, global growth forecasts have been impacted by uncertainties related to US economic and trade policy, as well as the resurgence of geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world. In spring 2025, the International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecasts to 1.8% for the US and 1% for the euro area.
Although stock market indices underwent a sharp readjustment following the announcement by the US of new tariffs in early April, with the CAC 40 losing 12% between 2 and 9 April, the markets as a whole proved resilient. Thanks to a moratorium and the start of bilateral negotiations as regards these tariffs, valuations have since returned to high levels, above their previous levels, raising fears of further adjustment. At the same time, volatility has risen across all asset classes, including crypto-assets, which are very attractive to retail investors, and appear to be more sensitive to the economic and geopolitical context than in the past. Heightened volatility looks set to persist in the current uncertain climate. The outcome of the bilateral trade negotiations with the US, which is not yet known, could also have further impact on growth expectations.
Given the recent market developments of early April 2025, French asset management has held up well. Money market funds recorded positive net inflows, while the flows into equity, bond and diversified funds remained very restrained. However, two segments remain a cause for concern for the regulator: funds invested in commercial real estate and funds invested in illiquid assets, such as unlisted assets, due to their sustained growth and the vulnerabilities they could reveal in the event of liquidity tensions. In this context, interconnections with the rest of the financial system remain a point of vigilance. The AMF, the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (the French Prudential Supervisory and Resolution Authority, ACPR) and the Banque de France are currently finalising the details of a system-wide stress test involving banks, insurers and asset managers.
The number of cyberattacks continues to increase across all market sectors, and the level of preparedness among stakeholders remains uneven. The introduction of the European DORA regulation in January 2025, which aims to improve transparency regarding incidents and enforce stronger operational risk management measures, is a major step forward in terms of operational resilience.
Risk summary
About the AMF
The AMF is an independent public authority responsible for ensuring that savings invested in financial products are protected and that investors are provided with adequate information. The AMF also supervises the orderly operations of markets. Visit our website https://www.amf-france.org/en
