The AMF publishes its 2026 Markets and Risk Outlook

Geopolitical instability has become a defining structure of the financial markets. Ongoing trade tensions, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and the continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to weigh on the global economic outlook. The renewed tension in the Middle East has further exacerbated this environment, reinforcing the uncertainty and unpredictability facing financial markets.

The economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East will depend on how events unfold in the region. Energy markets have been the main transmission channel, with severe disruption to oil and gas supplies. This has led to a sharp rise in energy prices and renewed market volatility. These developments have helped to reignite inflationary pressures and contributed to a deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook. Market expectations have also shifted, resulting in a more uncertain and differentiated outlook for the path of interest rates.

Despite a period of correction and high volatility, financial markets demonstrated resilience in response to the conflict, both operationally and financially. Equity markets rebounded swiftly following the outbreak of the conflict, and some have returned to, or even exceeded, their record highs. Nevertheless, the current situation has confirmed certain vulnerabilities identified in previous editions of the Markets and Risk Outlook, notably the high valuations of certain assets, the concentration of markets performance on a limited number of major technology stocks, and the significant levels of debt at certain companies. Together, these factors could increase the markets’ sensitivity to a deterioration in the macro financial environment.

On the bond markets, liquidity conditions remained broadly favourable. Inflationary pressures have yet led to a rise in government bond yields and higher financing costs, against a backdrop of high indebtedness. Meanwhile, the crypto-asset markets are continuing their corrective phase, reflecting increased sensitivity to developments in the economic and financial environment.

Investment funds continue to benefit from favourable valuation effects, driven in particular by the rise in the equity markets and key interest rates trends. Inflows remained positive in France, with no significant impact from recent geopolitical tensions. However, certain sectors remain areas of concern for the AMF, in particular real estate funds, which are still exposed to the weaknesses of the underlying market. The rapid expansion of private assets continues and warrants increased vigilance to ensure adequate investor protection. At this stage, the sector is not considered a significant source of financial stability risk, given its still limited size, but its sustained growth, combined with the expansion of retail access to these assets, raises increasing concerns regarding liquidity, valuation, leverage and interconnections with the rest of the financial system.

Operational and cyber risks also continue to rise. The rapid development of artificial intelligence, particularly advanced models (known as ‘frontier’ models), represents a potentially transformative development for cybersecurity. Whilst these technologies offer significant opportunities in terms of efficiency, innovation and risk management, they also increase certain cyber and operational vulnerabilities. In this context, the European Regulation on digital operational resilience in the financial sector (DORA) provides a key framework for strengthening the security and operational resilience of financial sector participants. The challenge now lies in the ongoing adaptation of the prevention and response systems in order to limit systemic risks and safeguard financial stability.

In 2025, the French savings rate remained high, with growing interest in financial investments and ETFs driven by neo-brokers and the emergence of a new generation of younger investors (under the age of 35). This group may be more vulnerable due to certain characteristics and investment behaviours. Against this backdrop, The AMF remains focused on ensuring investor protection. The Authority is also stepping up its efforts in response to the rise in scams, and the increasing sophisticated fraud schemes that rely on identity theft, new technologies and tactics designed to manipulate investors.

Risk summary

About the AMF

As an independent public authority, the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) protects savings invested in financial products, ensures that investors receive clear and reliable financial information, and maintains orderly financial markets. Through its engagement with European and international regulatory bodies, the AMF contributes to financial stability and effective regulation. The AMF develops and enforces regulatory standards, supervises market participants and market infrastructures, and takes action against misconduct and regulatory breaches. It also supports the transformation of the financial sector, particularly in the areas of innovation and sustainable finance. As an impact-driven regulator, the AMF acts in the public interest.

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